I originally was going to write a post about why calling last year the "year of the pitcher" was a bunch of bull. I wanted to argue that instead of a league wide dominance in pitching it was merely the year of amazing individual performances highlighted by no hitters and perfect games. So I went to baseball-reference.com to look up the statistics for league averages in pitching statistics only to find that 2010 was one of the best years for pitching in decades.
~In 2010, MLB set the record for most K's per 9 innings with 7.06 K's/9 innings pitched!
~In 2010, MLB had the lowest ERA of 4.08 since 1992!
~In 2010, MLB allowed the least amount of HR's at .95/game since 1993!
~In 2010, MLB allowed the least amount of H's at 8.76/game since 1992!
~In 2010, MLB had the lowest WHIP of 1.347 since 1992!
Do you see a trend? There seems to be this massive 19 year gap between pitching dominance in MLB, and the difference is significant. A 4.08 ERA for the year is better by .20 or more almost every year since 1992. The strikeouts are ridiculous at 7.06 per 9 innings where in the late 90's and early 2000's K's/9 innings was in the high 5's and low 6's. Less than 1 HR allowed per game? That's crazy! In 2000 the league average was 1.17!
So what are the reasons for the decline of pitching over 19 years and then a sudden dominance in 2010? Are steroids finally done? Are pitchers getting better or more creative with new pitches? Are ballparks getting bigger and more conducive for pitchers? Are batters getting worse? Is it a combination of all?
It's very interesting that even in the year of the pitcher, there wasn't any real pitching standout. Only 3 pitchers achieved 20 wins, 3 got 19, 3 got 18, 5 got 17, and 3 got 16. Thats 17 pitchers who got more than 15 wins. Out of those 17 only 6 had ERA's under 3.00. I personally believe that Roy Halladay had the best pitching year last year going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 219 K's. Will people be talking about that stat line in 20 years? Doubt it. But in the height of hitting prominence from 1998-2003, Pedro Martinez averaged 19.2 wins/year with a 2.23 ERA/year and 260.3 K's/season. Isn't that unbelievable! Shouldn't Pedro go to the Hall of Fame just for that 5 year stretch of being so far below the league averages? Koufax did.
I acknowledge that last year was the year of the pitcher, but I think that it wasn't the year of the pitching STARS. No one pitcher has popped out into Bob Gibson status since Pedro and I would like to see one pop out this year. I would love to see CC go 24-4 with a 1.98 ERA and 298 K's. My generation has witnessed McGuire and Sosa, Griffey and A-Rod, Ichiro and Jeter, but will we see a Bob Gibson or a Sandy Koufax. Will we see another Pedro or Greg Maddux? I hope so. I miss the old days when Pitchers were the stars and the bats were silenced. Here's to CC and Brian Wilson, Halladay and Jimenez, Mariano and Felez, I'm down for another year of the pitcher...defense and pitching wins and that why I'm scared of the Red Sox.
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Interesting post. Also interesting since steroids "started" immediately following baseball's return after the strike in '94. Coincidence that the last best year of the pitcher was the year of the strike? Probably not.
ReplyDeletePedro was absolutely incredible during those years. BUT, could the argument be made that he was on steroids as well?? Clemens was when he was lights out the entire time. Eric Gagne anyone? A great pitcher like Pedro turns into a MONSTER on steroids. 98 mph with a 72 mph curveball. Add in his other three pitches and he's lights out. Strange that he dropped off the face of the earth when steroids were cleaned out of baseball?? Suddenly he's "old" and cannot pitch but five years ago Clemens was lights out at 39 years old throwing 97mph? Makes me think that Pedro needed steroids to keep going, once they were gone he was. So it of course leads me to once again take the arm of cynicism and lean towards, "Pedro was great, but he was on steroids."
You cannot win as a pitcher going against roided out hitters. You won't. Case in Point: Eric Gagne vs. Barry Bonds. 10th Inning. 101mph. Homerun to centerfield, game over. Walk off. Bonds wins. And that was Steroids vs. Steroids and the pitcher still didn't win.
Want to talk about a guy that wasn't on steroids and was lights out during the steroid era? Randy Johnson. There is no arugment that can be made for him on steroids. He played forever (steroids destroy the body, too much evidence to suggest otherwise), was always awesome, always threw hard as hell, was also the same size. Including his mullett. Top 5 pitchers of ALL TIME. Randy Johnson. Steroid Free American.
Year of the Pitcher, I agree. I'd love to see another year like that too. Pitching & Defense. It may not get people to the games but it brings in wins and that brings in the people. The Dbacks hit homers and they lose. I'll take better pitching and defense all day long.
I love seeing 8IP, 2 H, 0ER, 10K on a guys line. Much more fun than 2001 and the 5IP, 8H, 5ER, 4K. I'd also love to see what a guy like Felix Hernandez could do with 1950's bullpen management. 260 IP, 45 GS, 27 W, 315 K's. Instead he'll get 215 IP, 33 GS, 17 W, 223 K's. Boring.
Good post.
Here is the problem, oh well raised son of mine.
ReplyDeleteC.C. has a three year decline in the most important stats and may have passed his peak.
But he did lose 25 lbs. and is in great shape.
Eliminating pitch counts would help, some say. Nolan Ryan has done away with it in Texas. Lets see what the results are.
Too often very good pitchers don't get run support (Bob Gibson didn't either) and it seems that run support helps a pitcher relax and pitch more fiercly.
And as per your provocative email, Griffey used PED.
Good points here. Interesting thing is, baseball has [typically] always been a game where the pitchers dictated the speed (and score) of the game...making great hitters standout that much more..or maybe there was just more of a balance.? All of this is with the exception of the steroid era. AMAZINGLY fun time period "in the moment." Not quite as fun now to look back in hindsight and realize that these guys have erased some amazing offensive records and therefore making older players dissappear from our memories...will our children know who Roger Maris is? not so sure.
ReplyDeleteI think the reason baseball has been our national past-time is because it resembles our everyday life closer than any other sport. You "work" nearly everyday. You have to travel, you aren't with your family as much as you like, you suck sometimes, you kick ass other times. You meet some awesome people along the way and make big mistakes (mostly in the media today) that help create who you are. You dust yourself off for the next day after going 0-4 with 4 K's just like you dust yourself off after a hard day at work.
Randy Johnson was amazing: line in half season with Astros, 1998: 10–1 record, a 1.28 ERA, and 116 strikeouts in 84⅓ innings, and pitched 4 shutouts. WTF!!!!
and let's not forget, he won 4 FOUR straight Cy YOung awards (1999-2002) and won the World Series MVP during that stretch.
And I agree...enough with the emphasis on pitch counts...never did it for the first 85 years of MLB and pitchers didn't seem to have an issue with pitching well into their careers.
ReplyDelete